Afghan refugees represent one of the world’s largest protracted refugee populations. Over the past four decades, many have been forced away from their homes to never see them again. Some were able to return, for a while, but had their lives upended by a fresh eruption of conflict and violence – either to be displaced elsewhere in the country, or to become refugees yet again. They have been denied their rights, demonized and constantly threatened with deportation.
Within the next few weeks, the last U.S. troops will leave Afghanistan, ending a military engagement that began 20 years ago this October. With the Taliban insurgency expanding, the U.S. withdrawal could provoke a major humanitarian crisis.
After more than 40 years of war, refugee crises are sadly familiar for Afghanistan. There are nearly 3 million registered Afghan refugees worldwide, equivalent to around 1 in 10 of all refugees.
Despite this, the international community continues to show a callous indifference towards Afghan refugees and asylum-seekers – who have been forcibly returned in large numbers from Europe, Iran, and Pakistan, or subject to cruel conditions in Australia’s offshore detention camps on Manus Island and Nauru.But a perfect storm of factors suggests that the next crisis could be especially acute: an emboldened and expanding insurgency, terrorist violence, the U.S. withdrawal, a fading peace process, and severe drought conditions to boot.
Those fleeing are likely to seek entry in Pakistan and Iran, each already home to several million Afghan refugees. In recent years Tehran and, to a lesser extent, Islamabad have both sought to deport people back to Afghanistan due to the perceived economic and security costs of hosting them. Europe, via the Mediterranean Sea route, has become an increasingly popular destination for Afghan refugees, but European Union states have deported thousands of Afghans too. Increased fighting in northern Afghanistan means Central Asian states will also face influxes of refugees.
In the event of a refugee crisis, many countries will face international pressure to accommodate Afghan refugees. There will also be internal pressures not to admit them. In recent years, countries have deported them using the excuse that they are economic migrants rather than war refugees. Afghanistan is now embroiled in a full-scale civil war.
The least politically risky option for Afghanistan’s neighbours is to house refugees in facilities just across their borders, hoping the U.N. and aid groups will help finance them. EU states, and especially those that participated in the NATO mission, should also do their part to accommodate Afghan refugees.
Afghanistan is now embroiled in a full-scale civil war.The looming crisis presents an opportunity for the Biden administration to back up its pledge to help restore U.S. global leadership. The United States should increase funding to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and related institutions to ensure Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian states have the support they need to help Afghan refugees.
As Afghans continue to flee violence, they’ll need help—and quickly.
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