As the war in Ukraine enters its sixth month, a conclusion seems far away and any prospect of peace seems bleak, and as Russia continues to reach in objectives in Donbas, it eyes more of the territory of its neighbor, its foreign minister now declaring, that due to increased aid from west to, what it considers or portrays to be the Nazi threat on its borders, leads to the only option being to expand the war goals to try and ‘denazify’ and neutralize further regions in the country.
Though Ukraine may have the support of Western countries right now but as the harsh winter of Europe rolls in, giants such as Germany will be forced to buy oil and Natural Gas from Russia which in turn would allow Russia to negotiate with an upper hand, and if that still doesn’t work Russia will work to increase the prices of oil as much as possible. It can also try to block major shipping routes like the Suez canal to increase transportation cost from the Persian Gulf. Also if the war prolongs for more the US presidential election in 2024 will be a major deciding factor in the conclusion of this conflict, as in 2024 Putin is eligible for election he may use the war to further justify prolonging his ‘reign’.As such any prospect of peace in the near future seems bleak no matter what the consequences of the war may be, be it economic, social, political, or in terms of life.
However, circumstances have never come in the way of speculation, we tend to repeat what we have done in the past, and thus though what happens in the past doesn’t repeat exactly there is still quite an uncanny resemblance. The Chechen War of 1994 and 1999, The invasion of Georgia, and the subsequent installation of puppet regimes in newly independent Abkhazia And South Ossetia, even though these countries are only recognized by Russia,this shows or rather helps us to predict what may be the fate of Ukraine. There is a huge possibility of the creation of 2 ‘independent’ buffer states in Donbas Region(the border region in the east): Donetsk and Luhansk. And if Russia could afford more states may pop up.
Russia will also use the opportunity to open waterways to Crimea and force Ukraine To provide water to its occupied territory of Crimea by some kind of treaty as, after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 by Russia, Ukraine cut off all the water canals to Crimea which constituted more than 90% of Crimea’s water Supply, Crimea wasn’t able to provide its nearly 2 million population and Russia was forced to ship water which is both expensive and unable to meet Crimea’s needs.It can even be speculated that Russia was forced to start the war due to the water crisis as the population has now swelled to almost 2.5 million and all the groundwater has dried up due to drought and unsustainable usage.
Russia may also perform some kind of territorial changes to fuel a rivalry such as that of Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region to leave an opening for intervention and for another territorial acquisition like the recent war that helped it earn diplomatic favors from both Turkey and Azerbaijan not to mention the whole another thing known as Russian recognized Republic Of Artsakh. This type of rivalry may be fueled near Ukraine’s western border with Moldova and Transnistria, and can also be done by installing semi-independent autonomous regions , most probably in the north at the border with Belarus and Poland. The aim of Russia is to create as much distance from NATO as possible to protect its southern border and the Crimea Region, which further aims to protect its access to the Black sea and Mediterranean.
Furthermore, will Russia award or not award Belarus for its participation, is a question dependent on success on the north Ukraine front. The addition of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblast to the war goals indicate that Russia wants to control much of Ukraine’s Coastline to open up the passage way from Azov Sea to Black Sea and to also allow a safe land passage to Crimea which will allow it to fully utilize its warm sea port of Sevastopol ,and also supply it with water as previously mentioned . It may also want to end any possible competition to its Natural Gas monopoly in Europe , as Ukraine has large Natural Gas reserves, but this point most experts have claimed is absurd.It may also want to exploite potential Oil reserves in the EEZ it gains from Annexing or puppeting such coastal areas.
In the recent years there has been increasing talks of unification of Russia and Belarus, and what is a better way than people uniting after winning again against the Nazi threat. This has been expressed clearly by the Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying that they have been forced to speed up the process of integration which began in 1997.
Finally as 2023 approaches it may want to strengthen its ties with Turkey, to allow its ships to pass through the Bosphorus to trade with the world or else all gains in Ukraine will be in vain. As Cicero once said “Endless money forms the sinews of war”.And from this principle even Russia is not free.
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